Jul 21, 2023
The Signature of Slump
Where is the Recession?
In a previous article, titled “A Brief History of the Rumbling Recession”, I argued that the extreme pace of monetary tightening since the beginning of the current US rate hiking cycle has caused enough damage to the financial system to start slowing down the real economy as all the leading indicators have been suggesting.
Apr 16, 2023
A Brief History of the Rumbling Recession
Is the US heading for recession? If so, what will trigger it?
Unlike previous ones, this article will be a short one. This story is told in 10 short points, and a few more charts:
1. Monetary and fiscal panic-stimulus in 2020 led to the highest CPI inflation in 40 years.
Nov 28, 2022
Bear on its Back? (Part II)
Have we seen the bottom, or is this rally just another bear-snap?
In Part I of this series, I explored the fundamental drivers of the stock-market as I see them. In this Part II, I will first describe the Problem of Induction and how I think it applies to markets. Secondly, I will discuss the 6th and final fundamental driver of equity markets, and finally I will attempt to put the puzzle together and answer the question in the title.
Nov 3, 2022
Bear on its Back? (Part I)
What drives the stock-market anyway?
OnOctober 13th the S&P 500 dipped deep below the 200-week moving average but quickly regained this level. Bullish divergence between price and the RSI also confirmed on the weekly chart. This was a very bullish setup in classical technical analysis terms and for short-term traders it was a golden opportunity for a snap-back swing-trade.
May 26, 2022
Powell has an inflation dragon to slay, and your portfolio might be in the way
Inflation, Fed policy, recession, stock-markets, and what to expect next
“Sell in May and go away?” might be a cliché, but it is a very relevant question at this juncture — and not for the usual seasonal reasons — there is much more at play here.
Mar 24, 2022
From Pandemic to Putin to your Portfolio
What should investors do in times of peak uncertainty?
Just as the world started clawing its way out of the Covid-19 abyss, and everyone caught a slight glimpse of better days ahead, Vladimir Putin decided to shatter all our hopes and dreams of normalcy. His decision to invade Ukraine on 24 Feb 2022, plunged the world into an arguably even more turbulent and tenuous situation than the global pandemic of the past 2 years.
Jul 9, 2021
Are we dancing the last dance?
Bubble indicators flashing?
In his January 2021 memo to investors, titled “Waiting for the last dance” Jeremy Grantham (from Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo) outlines his thesis on why he thinks the 12-year long bull market in US equities is about to end.
Jul 8, 2021
Connecting the dots…
Why do I write?
As an investor/trader, I collect a lot of dots. If writing can help me to better connect them, I have to give it a shot.
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